Trump Farm

Since his first insane ranting as a candidate I have been trying to ascertain is Trump senile?  Insane? Or crazy like a fox?  It could be that he’s both or that he is crazy and his handlers are like foxes. The point is there is a method, an ulterior purpose behind the ranting. As we peel back the layers of insanity, the underlying purpose looks ever more ugly and dangerous. We are starting to see a true fascism emerging. Take the nonsense allegations of voter fraud, that Hillary’s popular vote only exceeded his because 3 million illegal voted for her. A massive conspiracy theory that requires an absurd level of paper trail that no one, not even Trump’s own lawyers, thinks exists:

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Want to Argue about Politics More Effectively? Learn Risk Analysis 101

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For those of us who work professionally in risk management, it’s striking how many of the controversies surrounding the Trump administration are essentially controversies about risks. That means that if you want to argue more effectively (and intelligently) about many of these controversies, you need to know some basics from the discipline known as risk analysis. The good news is that the basic concepts are very easy to learn.

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Did Trump Play Us? The Timing of His Immigration Ban vs. NSC Reorganization

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I’m starting to think that Trump’s temporary immigration ban from the 7 Muslim-majority countries was an insincere, calculated act of political and journalistic misdirection. He got everyone focused on that while he did something else, totally unrelated, totally crazy, and arguably far worse.

He removed the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Director of National Intelligence from the “Principals Committee” of the National Security Council.

Let that sink in.

Both our nation’s top general and our nation’s Director of National Intelligence have been told they can’t sit at the adults table on the National Security Council.

Can someone please explain the logic of that to me?

In the long list of things we might classify as “government stupidity,” I can’t think of anything else which compares. Certainly not in the last 40 years. Am I missing something?

Bruce Schneier on How the Media Influences Our Fear of Terrorism

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Bruce Schneier is somewhat of an intellectual celebrity on all matters relating to security, especially information security.Although he doesn’t cite the work of Peter Sandman, what he writes about the psychology of security & risk is consistent with what Sandman says.

He posted the following article to his site one week ago. If you’re interested in terrorism-related risk, you’ll want to check this out. It’s a short read.

LINK

Risk = Hazard + Outrage, or Why Risk Stats about Toddlers, Lightning, and Guns vs. Terrorists Don’t Work

Philosopher Massimo Pigliucci recently tweeted a comparison of risk stats.

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While these statistics are surely correct, they are equally unlikely to have much impact on the public perception of risk. Peter Sandman is an expert in the field of risk communication. One of his contributions is the quasi-formula, “Risk = Hazard + Outrage.” Pigliucci’s statistics are an example of what Sandman calls data about the “hazard.” But there is another set of considerations, what he calls “outrage,” which play a much bigger role in how most people think about risk.

Sandman defines “outrage” as “how upsetting the risky situation is.” He explains as follows:

When I invented the label “outrage” some 30 years ago I had in mind the sort of righteous anger people feel when they suspect a nearby factory is belching carcinogens into the air. But as I use the concept now, it applies to fear-arousing situations as much as anger-arousing situations. High-outrage risks are the risks that tend to upset people, independent of how much harm they’re actually likely to do.

A risk that is voluntary, for example, provokes less outrage than one that’s coerced. A fair risk is less outrage-provoking than an unfair one. Among the other outrage factors link is to a PDF file:

  • Familiar versus exotic
  • Not memorable versus memorable
  • Not dreaded versus dreaded
  • Individually controlled versus controlled by others
  • Trustworthy sources versus untrustworthy sources
  • Responsive process versus unresponsive process

(LINK)

Not only does Sandman’s hazard vs. outrage distinction explain why appeals to comparative risk statistics don’t work, it is actually constructive because it help guides the conversation. Most of Sandman’s website is, in fact, an extended lesson in how to use an awareness of his “outrage factors” to get people’s outrage to better align with the hazard.

I’m not going to spell out how Sandman’s outrage factors play into the debate over Trump’s Executive Order temporarily banning immigration from seven Muslim-majority nations. I’ll leave that as an exercise for the reader. But I predict that, if you apply his techniques, you can both predict the talking points from Trump’s supporters as well as identify areas where Trump’s critics could do a much better job.